Technology & Finance
Re-Run of the Thirties in Conventional Economic Wisdom?
The most interesting decisions around the world today are in finance and regulation. The countries which get the issues right are going to become world leaders. Countries which let the finance industry operate as a casino subject to state rescue in times of trouble, or encourage finance as an end in itself—generating tax revenues but not supporting a country’s productivity, will pay a high price.
Robert Skidelsky, biographer of John Maynard Keynes, raises an even more fundamental issue in the FT --
“Who governs – government or financial markets?” No clear answer has yet been given, but the question may well define the political battleground for the next five years, he writes.
His latest book, “Keynes, The Return of the Master” is a stimulating recounting of the battles over this topic in the thirties.
The conventional wisdom—a term from another economist—John Kenneth Galbraith—is running strong these days. Families have to balance their budgets, so must governments. Keynes took a more sophisticated view and pointed to the harm caused by cutting deficits.
“The international financial crisis caused by the collapse of the Austrian Credit-Anstalt bank in July 1931 brought huge pressure on the government to act on the May Report. In a notable display of patriotic fervour, the financial and political establishment united to demand cuts in unemployment benefits to “save the pound”.
“Keynes was one of the very few who stood out against the herd. Of the May Report’s authors, he wrote: “I suppose that they are such very plain men that the advantages of not spending money seem obvious to them.” They had ignored the fact that their proposed cuts would add 250,000-400,000 to the unemployed and diminish tax receipts.”
In both the U.S. and the UK, the economy didn’t recover until World War II; for some reason war seems to be the only occasion when conservatives approve of deficits.
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